Sunday, October 01, 2006


Misusing the NAS Study

This article at Cheat-Seeking Missiles gives quite a spin of the National Academy of Sciences report on temperature data and evaluation. They say that one of the main conclusions of the study is that "Based on the evidence cited and methodology used by the hockey stick researchers, the idea that the planet is experiencing unprecedented global warming "cannot be supported." Let's see what the actual NAS report says:

Global Temperature:
"It can be said with a high level of confidence that global mean surface temperature was higher during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period during the preceding four centuries...Less confidence can be placed in large-scale surface temperature reconstruction for the period from A.D. 900 to 1600.

Global Warming:
"Surface temperature reconstructions for periods prior to the industrial era are only one of multiple lines of evidence supporting the conclusion that climatic warming is occurring in response to human activities, and they are not the primary evidence." -- This quote explodes the blatant falsehood from the article that, "The 'hockey stick' is, of course, the fundamental DNA of the global warming argument."

"On the basis of satellite-based monitoring, which began in the late 1970s, it is clear that the rapid global warming of the last few decades is not attributable to an increase in the Sun's emission."

"Surface temperature reconstructions for the last 2,000 years are consistent with other evidence of global climate change and can be considered as additional supporting evidence. In particular, the numerous indications that recent warmth is unprecedented for at least the last 400 years and potentially the last several millennia, in combination with estimates of external climate forcing variations over the same period, supports the conclusion that human activities are responsible for much of the recent warming."

Mann "hockey stick":
"The basic conclusion of Mann et al. (1998, 1999) was that the late 20th century warmth in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during the last 1000 years. The conclusion has subsequently been supported by an array of evidence that includes both additional large-scale surface temperature reconstructions and pronounced changes in a variety of local proxy indicators, such as melting on icecaps and the retreat of glaciers around the world."

Wow, what an indictment of global warming that NAS study is, eh. I guess one could say that I used "Precision-guided Logic Bombs to Destroy Biased Purveyors of Rep-rehensible Falsehoods".


So, Joe, if you're a "hockey stick" guy, i.e., one who believes there's human causality to global warming, how to you explain the global warming on Mars and Pluto? SUVs?
If you'd scrolled down two posts, you would have seen that I'd already posted an answer to that question. Here's the link.

Nothing to say about how I destroyed your original article? Just want to change the subject? I guess that's hardly surprising.
Inductive logic itself has problems and inaccuracies.
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